Great point 3 by @RichardSocher —likely many bullshit jobs https://t.co/FGMRAW5Jq0 won’t be impacted by AI either 🤔

@RichardSocher: There are at least a few reasons for why the incredible progress in AI hasn't yet resulted in a massive increase in GDP (some from Captain Obvious but number 3 is less intuitive to many smart people).

  1. AI replaces some steps in complicated processes but companies are still doing mostly similar things and adoption and rethinking entire industries are slow.
  2. Startups that replace everything (eg AI native law firm that is much cheaper) still need to ramp GTM, sales, etc

But more importantly and surprising to many in Silicon Valley:

  1. A huge chunk of the economy just does not require that much intelligence and won't materially change at its core with intelligence being abundant and cheap, eg.
  • tourism - people will want to see the pyramids with or without AI,
  • real estate - people want to live in hip and safe neighborhoods, AirBnB, rentals, etc.
  • luxury goods and status symbol bs, eg fancy handbags, clothes, overpriced cars, etc
  • food and large parts of the food supply chain (yes, I love AI for agriculture but crops and cows still need time to grow, etc)
  • sports and much of entertainment
  • oil drilling, tree growing/logging for construction, most of mining
  • etc

If your existing economy depends mostly on these types of industries, AI won't impact it that much.

But there's a whole new economy of knowledge work, research heavy industries, deep tech, online and digital work etc that will massively benefit and outgrow these existing industries.