The hyping of Anthropic’s IPO
Some strong claims, dissected
TL;DR
- Anthropic is in an SEC-monitored quiet period ahead of its expected fall IPO.
- Leaked reports suggest Anthropic is projecting 2028 revenue of $190-$200 billion.
- There are claims of strong Q2 performance and that Anthropic is making money on every token.
- Some projections made by fans and podcasters have been partially walked back.
I am watching something fascinating unfolding in real time. Anthropic is in an SEC-monitored “quiet period” before its IPO (expected sometime in the fall), somewhat limiting its communications (though not entirely; Amodeidiscussed governance matterson X yesterday, a rare appearance there for him, and the company continues to report on safety issues and so on). But that hasn’t stopped leakers and generative AI bulls from trying to convince audiences that Anthropic’s finances are spectacular.
Aside from the FridayReuters report abovein which Anthropic is said to be “projecting 2028 revenue of roughly $190 billion to $200 billion”, based of course on undisclosed math, “according to two [unnamed] people familiar with the company's financials”, we also heard yesterday abouthow amazing their Q2was (further details below), by way ofdocuments that were leaked to Bloomberg News. Anthropic may be “quiet”, but its fans are not.
Moreover, in a FridayAll-Inpodcast interview, Gavin Baker claimed that Anthropic was making money on every token. A couple weeks earlier the prominent podcaster Dwarkesh Patel projected (in a claim he partly walked back, see below) that “Anthropic likely ends the year with ~$100-150B of revenue”
Below, I dissect these claims and explain what’s been left out.